Stuart Taylor Jr. has an article on Newsweek.com about the various predictions from supporters and opponents of the new federal health care law about how the law will fare before the U.S. Supreme Court. As Taylor writes, two federal judges, one in Florida and the other in Virginia, have now suggested that the cases by officials of twenty states and three other plaintiffs challenging the law's individual mandate, which requires that uncovered individuals buy health insurance or face financial penalties, have merit.
Many observers, including Walter Dellinger and Tom Goldstein, both of whom are Supreme Court litigators, predict that the Court will vote at least 7-2 in favor of the constitutionality of the law, since the Court has not struck down a major piece of legislation as being beyond Congress's Commerce Clause power for around 75 years. Opponents of the law, including David Rivkin, who argued the case against the mandate last week, believe that they can convince the four conservative Justices and Justice Kennedy that the law is beyond Congress's power.
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